Text settings Story text Size Small Standard Large Width * Standard Wide Links Standard Orange * Subscribers only Learn more Minimize to nav More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognized to the security of sensitive information.
Analysis by the Anti-Corruption Data Collective, a non-profit research and advocacy group, found that long-shot bets—defined as wagers of $2,500 or more at odds of 35 percent or less—on the platform had an average win rate of around 52 percent in markets on military and defense actions.
That compares with a win rate of 25 percent across all politics-focused markets and just 14 percent for all markets on the platform as a whole.
The research is likely to add to growing concerns among regulators and lawmakers about insiders placing bets on the timing and success of military actions, amid fears that this could reveal classified information in advance.
The report, which analyzed more than 400,000 prediction markets settled on Polymarket between January 2021 and March 2026, comes as US prosecutors last week charged a soldier involved in planning the January raid to seize Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro with placing Polymarket wagers on the mission that netted more than $400,000.
Gannon Ken Van Dyke, an active duty soldier, is alleged to have made roughly 13 bets worth $33,034 on positions including “US Forces in Venezuela” and “Maduro out” while in possession of classified information. On Tuesday Van Dyke pleaded not guilty.
The charges represent the first US prosecution of insider trading on prediction markets. Earlier this year Israel filed charges against a reservist and a civilian accused of using classified information to bet on the country’s military operations on Polymarket.
Political markets where outcomes can be determined by small decision-making groups, particularly military and defense markets, are “structurally vulnerable to insider trading,” said the ACDC, adding that the dynamic not only threatens information security but also “disadvantages regular bettors.”
Yassamin Ansari, a Democratic lawmaker from Arizona, has called wagers on military actions “a disturbing national security risk,” while Ritchie Torres, a Democratic representative from New York, has said markets on political and military decisions risk creating “a perverse incentive” for government insiders “to personally push policies that line [their] pockets.”
The report also found that markets on cultural events, such as competition winners or music releases, were disproportionately likely to host suspicious wagers, with 29 percent of long-shot bets in these markets proving successful.
The Nobel Peace Prize organizers investigated a potential leak last year after online betting surged in favour of Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado just hours before she was announced as the winner.
There have also been concerns about market manipulation. France’s weather forecasting service this month filed a police complaint after detecting anomalies in its temperature gauges in Paris, which coincided with a surge in well-timed bets on Polymarket.
Some of Polymarket’s military and political markets have attracted heavy betting. Markets on whether the US and Iran will reach a permanent peace deal have seen $63 million in trading volume, while one on whether China will invade Taiwan in 2026 attracted $23 million. But sports wagers continue to dominate the platform, with trading volume on which team would become the Super Bowl champion earlier this year exceeding $700 million.
Polymarket declined to comment on the report. The company has previously said it prohibits trading on stolen confidential information or by those who can influence the outcome.
In a post on X last week, Polymarket said Van Dyke’s arrest was “proof the system works.” The company said that when it identified “a user trading on classified government information,” it referred the matter to the US Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation.
Amid increased scrutiny over suspected insider trading, prediction market platforms have tried to reassure customers and lawmakers that they are cracking down on market manipulation.
Kalshi, Polymarket’s major rival, has heavily promoted its own efforts, including a partnership with market surveillance company Solidus Labs, as it seeks to distance itself from Polymarket and emphasize its credentials as the largest regulated platform in the US.
Kalshi bans what it calls “violent markets, including war and kidnapping”—although it does allow markets on the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—saying that markets should “not incentivize harm,” while it also requires proof of identity. In contrast, Polymarket does not require most users of its international site to provide proof of identity and allows payment using anonymous cryptocurrency channels.
Growing scrutiny has created a business opportunity for a wave of start-ups selling tools to help users profit by copying suspected “insiders.”
“The platforms are creating new rules to try to root them out and make it clear they don’t allow that activity. That to me [ . . . ] proves there is some informed flow in these markets worth following,” said Matt Saincome, chief executive of financial data provider Unusual Whales, which sells a $20-a-month “unusual predictions” tool to monitor suspicious bets on Polymarket.
Another start-up, Polywhaler, promises to help traders “monitor large bets in real-time” for $4.99 a month.
Polymarket has itself published a list of the 10 most-copied wallets in a blog post, including recommendations for traders on strategies to follow and pitfalls to avoid when copy-trading.
The company and Kalshi have long argued their platforms harness collective wisdom to accurately forecast events. But another recent study has found prediction markets reflect the “wisdom of an informed minority” rather than the “wisdom of crowds.”
Only 3 percent of all accounts generate the bulk of price discovery, according to a study led by Roberto Gómez Cram, assistant professor of finance at the London School of Economics.
These are traders whose accounts predict prices and react quickly to breaking news, making outcomes more accurate for markets on Polymarket, the platform studied by the researchers.
The rest do not “produce wisdom,” the study said, and therefore are more likely to lose money. Instead, they fund skilled traders by generating most of the volume, “but little of the information, and their losses flow as profits to the informed minority.”
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